Afghan opposition headless without Masood

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ISLAMABAD, Sept 15 (AFP) -
The death of Afghan opposition commander Ahmad Shah Masood, if confirmed, will have far-reaching consequences for the civil war and the future of the anti-Taliban resistance, analysts said.

It will also be a cause for concern in Washington and Moscow as the United States examines a possible military intervention to root out alleged terrorists in Afghanistan, where the ruling Taliban militia is long suspected of providing a safe haven for militant Islamists.

Masood was reported to have died Friday in hospital somewhere in opposition-controlled northern Afghanistan after two Arab men posing as journalists exploded a bomb during a meeting in his office on Sunday.

Opposition sources confirmed only that he was "dying" from injuries sustained in the blast, which killed the two bombers, alleged followers of indicted terrorist Osama bin Laden, as well as a Masood spokesman.

The Taliban has already taken advantage of the former defence minister's absence and launched fresh attacks in the northeast and at the southern mouth of the Panjshir Valley, Masood's traditional stronghold and support base.

And the bombing itself, coming just two days before Tuesday's devastating terror attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, has inevitably sparked rumours of a trade-off between the ruling Taliban militia and their "guest" bin Laden.

With Islamic insurgency on the rise in former Soviet Central Asia, Russia has been concerned that without Masood's last line of defence along the border with Tajikistan, the Taliban could soon be on its doorstep.

Along with Iran and India, Russia has been backing Masood's Northern Alliance, reportedly providing arms deliveries and logistical support.

Moscow, which regards Central Asia as its backyard, has also stationed border guards on Tajikistan's 1,500-kilometre (900-mile) frontier with Afghanistan.

Masood, a veteran commander who held Soviet forces at bay for 10 years during the 1979-89 occupation, was famous for leading battles from the frontlines and holding the fragile oppositon alliance together with deft diplomacy.

His loss would be a major blow to the anti-Taliban resistance as the summer fighting season nears its traditionally bloody close.

The opposition has always been a motley alliance of former enemies and turncoats, including warlords from the Uzbek, Hazara and Masood's Tajik ethnic minorities.

But without Masood's leadership, and the contacts he enjoyed with allies among the international community, analysts said it could be in danger of crumbling.

Ex-communist general and Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostam -- at various times over the past 10 years both an enemy and an ally of Masood's -- rejoined the alliance as recently as April after a period in exile following defeat at the hands of the Taliban.

He has launched a few minor attacks in his heartland of northern Balkh province since his return, but has failed to seriously trouble the Islamic militia, which seized Kabul in 1996.

In central Bamiyan province, the opposition alliance consists of Shiite Hazara forces led by the Hezb-e-Wahdat, a group which helped reduce much of Kabul to rubble when Masood was defence minister in the early 1990s.

Faced with the common threat of the Taliban, they have also buried their differences and sought safety in Masood's alliance, although they have proved incapable of significant action outside the Hazarajat region around Bamiyan.

In the west, former governor of Herat province Islmail Khan also returned from exile in Iran earlier this year and has begun small-scale attacks against Taliban forces in the area.

His forces are believed to control swathes of countryside but the main roads and towns appear to be firmly in the Taliban's grip.

Most of the fighting this summer has been in Masood's territory of Takhar province, where the Taliban has launched a series of failed attacks aimed at the strategic Farkhar Valley.

Until this week, the opposition had held its lines, protecting Badakhshan, the last province under Masood's total control in the far northeast, as well as his traditional stronghold in the Panjshir valley nearer Kabul.

But Friday brought the first major test for Masood's replacement, former intelligence chief General Fahim (eds: one name), who was appointed Tuesday.

Taliban forces quickly captured Dashti-Rubat in Takhar and were close to Kalafgan district near Badakhshan after a heavy offensive, according to reports.

It was the hardline Islamic militia's first major territorial gains on the northern front in 12 months.

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